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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.