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A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."